Writing

• Can an LLM trade a prediction market?. May 2026. A few new papers say maybe. I’m not sure the interesting part is the trading.
• What happens to expert advice when LLMs can make accurate forecasts?. May 2026. A hypothesis I keep turning over: that the part of expert advice most exposed to AI is not the relationship but the judgement.
• Two Ways to Make Language Models Forecast. May 2026. Google’s Nexus and my thesis make opposite bets on letting language into forecasting.